NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508aec1183c6c6ed776017f8befdd74ac09f481de44e8159b9b551615db9c3ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 32,714$17,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,344.77 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 11,300$5,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,831$3,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.98 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 48c | 2,587$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.72 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 51c | 2,090$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.7 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Over | 50c | 2,007$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 50c | 1,925$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,450$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 855$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 625$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…5351backed Under | 52c | 538.46$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 54c | 405$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 51c | 402.94$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.97 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 357$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 46c | 225$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…5769backed Over | 50c | 174$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…e829backed Over | 50c | 147$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…99debacked Over | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…83e5backed Under | 51c | 133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 124.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…d4f2backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4684…82f3backed Under | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…a1bcbacked Over | 49c | 115.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 46c | 99.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…afedbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 89.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 72.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Over | 54c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5this page
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.