NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x579807847375ba7b54beb98eadfa0b6401dc1a3b74d0825dafb46bfb1ba87e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 43c | 14,534$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,294.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies | 60c | 7,428$4,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,456.5 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 54c | 6,923$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Grizzlies | 57c | 6,543$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.51 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nuggets | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Grizzlies | 52c | 2,090$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.8 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Grizzlies | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 45c | 1,031$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Nuggets | 54c | 517$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 46c | 507$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 485.92$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.82 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 43c | 393$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 39c | 290$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Grizzlies | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Grizzlies | 59c | 174.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nuggets | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Nuggets | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Nuggets | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 204 | 34.8%71 W · 133 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 95.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Nuggets | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Nuggets | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.