NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5cb03604f3a1999f64a6fd9aff14b94766efa861a1e0e9cc401feeb047ea20a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.99 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,866$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2052backed Under | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…c39bbacked Over | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Under | 49c | 1,429$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 1,107$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 54c | 1,007$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.22 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 741$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 625$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 52c | 577$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.96 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Over | 54c | 410.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Under | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…a1b9backed Under | 48c | 252$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…3f18backed Over | 53c | 248$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…3ff6backed Over | 53c | 230$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…c657backed Under | 48c | 226$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Over | 54c | 30.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 163 | 21.5%35 W · 128 L | -20.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5this page
- Nuggets vs. GrizzliesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.