NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7549b5feb59c4c8a37eed6c01cffee79c14384a8b85e5a162ece0efe167647ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 68c | 9,741$6,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.16 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 32c | 8,572$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.14 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 51c | 2,190$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.53 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…f893backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…ff56backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…7c03backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 1,615$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.48 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,524$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,300$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,150$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 50c | 992.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 50c | 640$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Over | 48c | 623$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 602$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…832ebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 50c | 430.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 399.02$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 262.14$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 50c | 258$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 234.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…d27abacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…fa9fbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…642cbacked Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 46c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…2198backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 45c | 32.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…f769backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Under | 63c | 16.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5this page
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.