NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac6af5cf934a2bee664b007a435e375e05feedb994cd1457d8077968e614b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 54c | 30,610$16,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,518.42 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors | 46c | 19,516$8,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,518.56 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 47c | 5,684$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 48c | 5,330$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Jazz | 51c | 3,107$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.57 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Jazz | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 20c | 1,635$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Warriors | 48c | 1,480$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.6 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Jazz | 51c | 1,475$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.25 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Warriors | 46c | 1,410$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.41 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Warriors | 49c | 1,225$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.75 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Jazz | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Jazz | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Warriors | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Warriors | 47c | 954.24$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.75 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Jazz | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 48c | 749.85$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Warriors | 46c | 656.52$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.52 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Warriors | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Jazz | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Warriors | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Jazz | 51c | 327$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 48c | 268.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Warriors | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Warriors | 47c | 207$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 46c | 193$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Warriors | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 187.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Warriors | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Jazz | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 100 | 62%62 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Warriors | 50c | 127.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed Jazz | 52c | 115.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Warriors | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Warriors | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Jazz | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Warriors | 51c | 99.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 45c | 72.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Warriors | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Jazz | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Jazz | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Warriors | 46c | 46.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Warriors | 47c | 32.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Jazz | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Jazz | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Jazz | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…b3d7backed Jazz | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…b896backed Jazz | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)this page
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.