NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221661922e30693c30af6aeae17466622d53265887547301fdf92e9eea6ba40e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda21…8646backed Warriors | 46c | 2,025$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.56 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Jazz | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Warriors | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Warriors | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80a8backed Warriors | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5e…9bd5backed Warriors | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c94fbacked Jazz | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Jazz | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c41…02e2backed Jazz | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 49c | 1,370$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Jazz | 51c | 587.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.77 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Jazz | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Jazz | 51c | 392.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jazz | 54c | 317.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Jazz | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Warriors | 43c | 218.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Jazz | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 44c | 172$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…435abacked Jazz | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 44c | 114.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Warriors | 44c | 111$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Jazz | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Jazz | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Warriors | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 54c | 87.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Jazz | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Jazz | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Jazz | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Jazz | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…76c9backed Jazz | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 50c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3c…cf9cbacked Warriors | 49c | 45.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Jazz | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Jazz | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Jazz | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Jazz | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Jazz | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)this page
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.