TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trail Blazers vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$853,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$880,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $853,298 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Bucks53c57,989$30,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,734.361,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Trail Blazers49c55,000$26,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,049.971,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,50038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bucks51c49,161$25,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,047.152,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Bucks52c48,013$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Bucks41c36,822$15,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,199.3327251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Trail Blazers46c29,999$13,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,199.2296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Trail Blazers63c28,901$18,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,808.851,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers61c26,558$16,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,241.724,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Bucks9c26,250$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.512529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Trail Blazers48c26,065$12,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,503.785850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers47c25,014$11,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,185.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Bucks52c17,854$9,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,283.9543051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers64c17,432$11,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,292.235,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bucks53c15,632$8,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,222.1935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bucks0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Bucks51c9,900$5,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,09413743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bucks51c9,443$4,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,847.9159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Trail Blazers47c9,163$4,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,888.8672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Trail Blazers46c8,528$3,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,605.031,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Trail Blazers46c8,324$3,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,494.7234645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x628b…ba54backed Bucks54c7,800$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,21240%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x194e…36a4backed Trail Blazers45c7,800$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Trail Blazers66c7,488$4,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.997259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6404,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Trail Blazers71c6,389$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.4926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bucks52c5,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Trail Blazers46c5,324$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,87517554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Trail Blazers50c5,138$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.33850%19 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bucks53c5,055$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.1655346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad34…4386backed Bucks51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5501258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5501,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bucks54c4,880$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,626.662351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Trail Blazers47c4,744$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.3444459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Trail Blazers49c4,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,29547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bucks53c4,492$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.7847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Trail Blazers66c4,469$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.0385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed Trail Blazers49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.631656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Trail Blazers47c3,871$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.8828850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Trail Blazers49c3,761$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.2944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Trail Blazers62c3,545$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.572,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers49c3,338$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.532,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bucks55c3,333$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.1576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Bucks15c3,237$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.895145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks26c2,865$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.851,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Bucks42c2,850$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.9716540%66 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks53c2,677$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.563,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bucks43c2,591$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.4348046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bucks32c2,500$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers67c2,380$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a1…d0bcbacked Bucks54c2,200$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks52c2,075$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.222,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Trail Blazers66c2,071$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.861,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00050239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Bucks53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9336248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Trail Blazers49c1,970$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.8641954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers50c1,900$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.9782442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Trail Blazers48c1,881$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.0821142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Bucks54c1,845$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.1624847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Trail Blazers63c1,843$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.8456945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec6…a989backed Bucks53c1,789$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b6…fcdbbacked Trail Blazers46c1,770$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks1c1,718$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.748820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Trail Blazers62c1,703$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.785,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Bucks52c1,700$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8848048.8%39 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0480…0a91backed Bucks51c1,606$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8195450%27 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Trail Blazers47c1,511$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.647458.1%43 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Bucks52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78019441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb800…e43abacked Bucks54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8105837.9%22 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Bucks55c1,465$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.1320349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b7…fcf0backed Trail Blazers68c1,454$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.791752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Trail Blazers56c1,431$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.9711149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Trail Blazers48c1,418$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.2995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…28adbacked Bucks54c1,389$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Trail Blazers49c1,346$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.0538649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5b…7d6ebacked Trail Blazers47c1,340$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.35633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4160…ade4backed Bucks45c1,335$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.754429.5%13 W · 31 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers48c1,314$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.282,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Bucks46c1,291$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60026048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Bucks51c1,262$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.1615945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc4…d8ffbacked Trail Blazers47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Trail Blazers45c1,200$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.9961835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…c851backed Trail Blazers68c1,182$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.223850%19 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Trail Blazers47c1,158$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Bucks51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56146632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Trail Blazers47c1,070$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.134855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Bucks51c1,058$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.3413042.3%55 W · 75 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Trail Blazers47c1,003$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.5514254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Bucks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks20c1,000$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Trail Blazers46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54014245.1%64 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcc…d48ebacked Trail Blazers47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Trail Blazers45c999.87$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.931,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Bucks52c991.73$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.762541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64fc…9b30backed Bucks52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008960.7%54 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Bucks56c950$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.515945.9%73 W · 86 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf38f…bba8backed Bucks54c942.59$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks51c934$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.3469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.