NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdce532a2b8a2523770958b5babafb8afef9b11ffa0d374278553c2cafc0e8b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Bucks, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 69,835$37,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,826.68 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 47c | 42,428$19,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,941.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Bucks | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,250 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 23,000$11,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,270 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 50c | 19,948$9,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,894.78 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks | 47c | 8,614$4,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048.55 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 47c | 3,857$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…5ecebacked Bucks | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 2,039$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.5 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,215$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.39 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,053$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bucks | 52c | 659$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.68 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 604$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 468$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 47c | 460.01$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 386$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.86 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 47c | 358$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 49c | 261.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352a…2e47backed Bucks | 51c | 167$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bucks | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…c7e5backed Bucks | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…e4d7backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bucks | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…bd0cbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Bucks | 51c | 109$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…d3bebacked Bucks | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Bucks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3a…a100backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Bucks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa60…9a1abacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 52.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Bucks | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Bucks | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Trail Blazers | 71c | 22.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. BucksTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.