NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5088b7ff7a8b0d74169020b97f7925ee2eae5ea99edf58a6a2dc7853b00f47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Bucks, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 47c | 3,409$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,152$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.56 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Bucks | 47c | 3,060$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.2 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…aa56backed Bucks | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Bucks | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.84 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Bucks | 47c | 2,079$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.13 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…a2a9backed Bucks | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 45c | 1,777$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.65 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 46c | 1,122$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.72 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…8645backed Bucks | 47c | 560$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -57%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…ab58backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 560$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks | 47c | 480$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Bucks | 46c | 279$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Bucks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bucks | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Bucks | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bucks | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Bucks | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 51.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 51.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Bucks | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…e2ffbacked Bucks | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4f88backed Bucks | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bucks | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…e305backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. BucksTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.