TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Magic, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,497,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,633,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,497,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x423e…77e9backed Magic63c288,187$180,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180,607.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Magic5c92,497$4,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,839.0419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hawks38c89,573$33,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,956.6447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks39c74,667$29,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,213.182,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magic0c68,931$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Hawks37c50,000$18,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,50014856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Hawks40c38,752$15,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,251.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks38c32,626$12,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,360.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic18c31,718$5,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,684.6381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hawks40c25,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Hawks75c23,615$17,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,903.6934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Hawks40c22,515$9,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,508.7815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Magic25c21,237$5,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,209.221,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Hawks68c18,401$12,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,818.7947144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Magic60c15,830$9,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4986253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Hawks40c15,748$6,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,448.510930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Hawks40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0004766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic20c13,082$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.311,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Magic59c12,184$7,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,188.51,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks39c12,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,32074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks39c9,811$3,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.792,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Magic60c9,800$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8807468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ca…ccd2backed Hawks39c9,800$3,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,968.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Magic52c8,381$4,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,336.2385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Hawks38c8,266$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,109.812160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks40c7,859$3,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,741.3771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Hawks39c7,525$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,576.6644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Magic60c7,154$4,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.8436148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…7470backed Magic61c6,500$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,965450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Hawks40c6,432$2,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.430053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c6,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Magic50c6,012$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.2215549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Hawks39c6,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,66046342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks39c5,657$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.252,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Magic0c5,592$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.888783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic1c5,543$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.431,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic33c5,533$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.453,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Magic1c5,310$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.67211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Magic60c4,997$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0009652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Magic61c4,918$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Magic13c4,669$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.5948046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Magic32c4,636$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.5726038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Magic60c4,273$2,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.157739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic30c4,207$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.132,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic13c4,200$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.311,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.9882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Magic45c3,826$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.1815551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed Magic2c3,691$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.577256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Hawks36c3,600$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30161835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks37c3,216$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.382,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Magic1c3,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.57502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hawks54c3,150$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks38c3,100$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92041848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Magic52c3,084$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5956435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Magic60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Magic36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0809042.2%38 W · 52 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Hawks37c2,800$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7641,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Magic42c2,762$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.549640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magic26c2,712$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.771,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked Magic61c2,640$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.42777.8%21 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Magic4c2,626$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Hawks72c2,621$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.6438151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Magic61c2,500$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52516446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Hawks40c2,468$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.2424330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Magic59c2,447$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.6895049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic59c2,396$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.4269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Magic25c2,191$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.2135532.4%115 W · 240 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Hawks41c2,168$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.1720349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Hawks37c2,050$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.513345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Magic17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Hawks39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Magic59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Magic35c2,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic10c1,953$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.062,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Hawks39c1,908$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.647748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Magic35c1,900$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Magic59c1,760$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.6676249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e0…3101backed Magic61c1,700$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Magic2c1,699$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.981,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Magic1c1,682$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581088.3%9 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Hawks40c1,669$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.5648944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Magic61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Magic14c1,635$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.442845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a3…ca92backed Magic61c1,600$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…dc82backed Magic20c1,500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2955827.6%16 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hawks39c1,484$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.9273647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df0…8f4ebacked Magic19c1,459$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.712025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks39c1,398$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.453,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Magic5c1,300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7112427.4%34 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0a…7bc7backed Hawks40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd548…e622backed Magic61c1,250$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Hawks38c1,250$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.55244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed Magic2c1,216$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Magic44c1,207$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2322449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…66f2backed Hawks77c1,169$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8313766.4%91 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic17c1,047$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.153,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Magic37c1,032$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38513042.3%55 W · 75 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hawks49c1,026$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.225,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730d…6cfabacked Magic62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6203046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.