NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36168b52f9843dc4ff329033e810282f3bacb6cdf352effe400b775673ef9eab

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Magic, Hawks
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,604 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks	50c	37,443$18,691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,751.52	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Magic	50c	23,554$11,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,777	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Magic	50c	14,925$7,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,462.5	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Hawks	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic	51c	2,941$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	49c	2,863$1,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,454.96	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Magic	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Magic	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Magic	50c	1,798$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.51	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Magic	54c	1,487$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic	50c	1,408$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Hawks	51c	1,022$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.57	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Magic	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	227	52%118 W · 109 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda42…f683backed Magic	49c	811$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.39	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks	48c	674.55$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.25	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Hawks	49c	596.42$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.57	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…e803backed Hawks	51c	396.02$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.05	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf5a…e782backed Hawks	51c	372$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.28	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	54cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Magic	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0e57backed Hawks	51c	340$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.6	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.48per pick	53cpaid	+91.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e4…e4f5backed Hawks	50c	340$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9094…8f26backed Magic	50c	260$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Magic	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Magic	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	49c	124$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.04	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks	51c	115$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.35	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Hawks	50c	111$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.5	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf932…f8fabacked Hawks	51c	90$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	53c	79.72$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.25	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3118…0375backed Magic	50c	72$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Magic	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Magic	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88bf…591abacked Magic	50c	49.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Hawks	50c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Magic	49c	29.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Magic	50c	27.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	203	56.7%115 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc286…d936backed Magic	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	50c	23.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Hawks	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event