NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd92504073e00c6a6505a8c5bc709c9dc4dc04221d38737b5b43c5e74bd1ce97

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Magic, Hawks
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,978 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks	53c	2,757$1,473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,283.94	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic	46c	1,455$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.62	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	46c	869.55$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	46c	801$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.46	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fb…56cabacked Magic	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Hawks	52c	346.15$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.15	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	48c	311.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.75	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Magic	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	47c	288.5$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.33	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	47c	183.04$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.12	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed Magic	48c	149.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Magic	47c	106.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Hawks	52c	105.18$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.18	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic	46c	98.65$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.38	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks	54c	85.52$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.34	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Hawks	55c	80$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	218	38.1%83 W · 135 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Hawks	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Hawks	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc31…9e28backed Magic	49c	53.06$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Hawks	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Hawks	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Magic	45c	39.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Magic	49c	38.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Hawks	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks	55c	30.9$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.91	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Magic	46c	27.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Hawks	52c	24.04$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.54	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Magic	46c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Hawks	52c	22.23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.67	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event