NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0faf3d7b194ce051224d805ddf72419a9078a6dae7ac23b2ffa93a15270b7ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 11,830$5,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,916.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 50c | 4,980$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.88 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 4,914$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.21 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 3,402$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 50c | 2,961$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.48 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 51c | 2,670$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.7 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Under | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 762.45$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.23 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…8893backed Over | 46c | 655.35$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…7e59backed Over | 46c | 650$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…4332backed Under | 54c | 650$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…ddcfbacked Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 46c | 374.57$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.29 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 226$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 49c | 120.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…8764backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 86.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 84.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…a09fbacked Under | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…7777backed Under | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…606cbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…cd61backed Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…1524backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…d081backed Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…d6d8backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…704bbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…bbc8backed Under | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…a94fbacked Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…a60fbacked Under | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…619abacked Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…f281backed Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 57c | 28.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…0e07backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…6020backed Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…7283backed Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…f272backed Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…3db6backed Under | 51c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…8372backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…a9ccbacked Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…8270backed Under | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…74a6backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…860cbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5this page
- Magic vs. HawksHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.