NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0cb1c65ed3248ac6f0a5ee2a7d542b9ed13afae206504fb3219811fb10736fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 6,301$3,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,137.69 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 48c | 5,451$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.53 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,597$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 844.28$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 48c | 831.25$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 49c | 702$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.36 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 571.58$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.36 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Under | 48c | 411.92$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 269.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 48c | 134.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 53c | 75.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 48c | 57.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Under | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5this page
- Magic vs. HawksHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.