NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6520c63e674dd05712dab527e78dab21d3015488eedaa5ed293aff01814427ea

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Magic, Hawks
Resolved: Nov 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,059 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x423e…77e9backed Magic	58c	76,557$44,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44,147.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	43c	55,016$23,478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,538.36	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hawks	45c	9,100$4,095 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,005	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Magic	55c	7,273$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks	43c	4,761$2,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,692.63	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks	44c	4,373$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,436.55	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Hawks	41c	3,983$1,615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,367.8	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks	42c	1,855$778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,076.94	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hawks	42c	1,667$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$966.86	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	43c	1,400$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.8	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks	41c	1,000$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks	42c	928.5$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.56	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawks	43c	600$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hawks	46c	551$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.54	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf2…a258backed Hawks	46c	540$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.6	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x336a…1967backed Magic	54c	540$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.6	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Magic	55c	403.64$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks	46c	373.88$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.33	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks	45c	300$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.77	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Hawks	45c	286.26$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.44	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Magic	58c	251.55$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	167	40.1%67 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Magic	55c	181.38$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df0…8f4ebacked Hawks	45c	133.2$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.26	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks	44c	122.77$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.75	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Magic	56c	122.77$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.75	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Hawks	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Magic	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event