TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7fb…56ca

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tennis, grading 49 out of 100 (-0.01 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Tennis at 49 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT3033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$257.77
Timberwolves vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Heat vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$109.14
Nuggets vs. Pacersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+33.3%+$102.75
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$82
Suns vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Rockets vs. Jazzbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Mavericks vs. Nuggetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+156.4%+$156.41
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+96.1%+$40.55
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$379.61
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Magic (-4.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
76ers vs. Bullsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Raptorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Heat vs. Clippersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+221.9%+$310.62
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+127.3%+$127.27
Mavericks vs. Rocketsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Heat vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
Warriors vs. Bucksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.4
Pelicans vs. Nuggetsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Mavericksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+100%+$215
Pacers vs. Grizzliesbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+40.8%+$114.21
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+75.4%+$75.44
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$98.2
Falcons vs. Saintsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Spread: Bills (-6.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$82.66
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+44.9%+$28.58
Seahawks vs. Ramsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$96.4
Rams vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Jaguars vs. Texansbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Patriots vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Falcons vs. Coltsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Broncos vs. Texansbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+115.8%+$173.77
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+92.3%+$101.54
Commanders vs. Chiefsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Cowboys vs. Broncosbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
49ers vs. Texansbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$245
Texans vs. Seahawksbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Buccaneers vs. Lionsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Bengals vs. Packersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 23 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guangzhou Open: Lulu Sun vs Yafan Wangbacked Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.