TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cowboys vs. Broncos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Cowboys, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,235,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,309,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,235,875 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 844 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Broncos66c1,547,899$1,014,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533,764.1517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys34c727,726$245,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245,792.8947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cowboys36c270,858$96,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,431.3122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Cowboys34c250,000$83,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,7505550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Cowboys34c206,361$69,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,743.8110333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos63c160,193$101,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,663.5217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Cowboys34c150,000$51,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,25013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Cowboys34c129,718$44,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,104.2812352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos65c110,463$71,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,162.4944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Cowboys37c90,000$33,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,299.993652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Cowboys33c82,164$27,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,481.410026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Cowboys35c70,500$24,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,67527454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys38c60,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,499.9331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Broncos76c59,364$45,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,341.9930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Broncos64c53,531$34,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,271.1114342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Cowboys35c43,502$15,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,225.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Broncos63c42,136$26,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,731.8633553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cowboys36c37,728$13,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,537.2853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Broncos60c34,404$20,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,807.1541947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Broncos66c31,881$21,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,839.451681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Cowboys35c31,370$10,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,979.510650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Broncos65c29,035$18,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,298.9461148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Cowboys43c28,572$12,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,252.9211252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Cowboys35c28,571$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Cowboys0c27,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Cowboys38c26,846$10,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,139.9416545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Cowboys33c25,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,25020634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos72c23,396$16,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,579.7460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cowboys33c20,600$6,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,755.9930743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Cowboys1c20,536$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.861486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos62c19,640$12,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,463.228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Broncos65c18,996$12,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,648.631258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Cowboys0c18,143$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588938.2%34 W · 55 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Broncos66c18,039$11,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,142.0927348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Broncos60c15,693$9,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,284.522552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Cowboys37c15,627$5,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.1614951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Broncos62c15,190$9,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,772.168344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Broncos66c15,152$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.525464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Broncos64c15,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.997657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Broncos66c12,753$8,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,396.1424456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cowboys35c11,429$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cowboys34c10,700$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,63883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Cowboys38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80024351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Broncos76c9,307$7,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.61580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+42.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Broncos69c9,192$6,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.8619235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Broncos61c8,673$5,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.3311649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f89…d508backed Broncos78c7,641$5,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa77e…92e7backed Broncos62c7,517$4,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…0bedbacked Cowboys38c7,509$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c9…2278backed Broncos58c7,251$4,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Cowboys35c7,071$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4754252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Cowboys11c6,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cowboys34c6,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Cowboys2c5,965$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.361969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Cowboys35c5,714$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Cowboys36c5,556$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Broncos68c5,415$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.5927644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Cowboys2c5,354$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.581315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Cowboys35c5,318$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.236850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Broncos62c5,047$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.2131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Cowboys33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6503056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Broncos64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8003979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Cowboys34c4,962$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.085837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Broncos59c4,900$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.7113450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Cowboys0c4,806$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos63c4,751$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.8186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cowboys34c4,500$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53013942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos62c4,500$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Broncos63c4,384$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.320026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Broncos75c4,347$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.936960.9%42 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Broncos58c4,283$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.16965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Broncos60c4,247$2,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.9425956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Broncos54c4,144$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.451855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Cowboys2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Broncos63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4805560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Cowboys35c3,933$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.759444.7%42 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Cowboys35c3,917$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3713630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Cowboys40c3,750$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Broncos66c3,500$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2051450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos62c3,182$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.2724957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Broncos75c3,127$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.9323850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Cowboys35c3,100$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08516036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Cowboys39c3,100$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0a…2f94backed Cowboys21c3,064$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Cowboys38c2,804$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.1131350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys33c2,778$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.141,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Cowboys36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Cowboys10c2,750$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.57526.7%20 W · 55 L-12.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc125…15fcbacked Cowboys8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001915.8%3 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc79f…8334backed Cowboys36c2,431$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.022934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Cowboys38c2,301$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Cowboys46c2,300$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0585246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Cowboys37c2,250$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.5914443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cowboys35c2,207$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.3318435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Cowboys38c2,139$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.97152.1%37 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9800…aaa3backed Cowboys10c2,087$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.19911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-82.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8983…0eadbacked Cowboys16c2,063$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7780…f218backed Broncos65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Cowboys35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked Cowboys35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.