NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef62b1c1901b4fbdd607ce86d6e5b0043c1e8817fbf5a162ac0561aba322048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 45c | 13,000$5,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,850 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 56c | 12,966$7,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.96 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 55c | 5,209$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.05 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 3,301$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.51 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 2,569$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.55 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 1,473$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.93 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 1,357$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.48 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 46c | 1,342$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.47 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 44c | 1,001$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 46c | 496.44$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.64 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 466.15$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 51c | 246.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.63 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…0471backed Under | 50c | 47.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…1bb3backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…d55ebacked Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…e52ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Cowboys vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 49.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.