NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447a892cd06f947a8c90e2f99d3835a599683996cceca335f348f2c04e3d62c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cowboys | 52c | 6,500$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Broncos | 47c | 5,932$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,144.21 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cowboys | 53c | 5,500$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 48c | 4,480$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.81 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 47c | 4,034$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.33 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos | 45c | 2,368$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.22 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cowboys | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Cowboys | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Cowboys | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Cowboys | 52c | 596.08$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cowboys | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos | 47c | 221.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Cowboys | 53c | 190.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Cowboys | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos | 49c | 167.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Broncos | 48c | 163.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Cowboys | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Cowboys | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Cowboys | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Broncos | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…70d8backed Cowboys | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cowboys | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Cowboys vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 49.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.