NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85d79158ced8ad5b5f083c45e6f42a824ead09040221ea2b4a263db8cd7bd12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 45,038$22,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,576.32 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 50c | 25,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,600 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 20,832$10,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,415.98 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Under | 50c | 9,281$4,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640.74 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 8,000$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,653$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.09 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 50c | 2,175$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,693$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,072$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.97 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 786$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 49c | 513.88$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.8 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 49c | 396.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…b556backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…3311backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 75.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…1a06backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…de71backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 53c | 28.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Cowboys vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 48.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 49.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.