TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Broncos51c117,502$59,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,575.7517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys54c113,006$60,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,934.1447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,50031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos49c41,188$20,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,100.6517454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Cowboys50c29,721$14,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,834.2333553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Broncos51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8004637%17 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos50c14,397$7,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,237.7986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Cowboys49c13,190$6,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,429.2627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Broncos5c10,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5001681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cowboys49c9,687$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.8122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cowboys48c9,183$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.5537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Broncos50c8,014$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.851764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+45.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cowboys51c7,850$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,003.58845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Broncos50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.118140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cowboys52c5,973$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,105.9644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos48c5,741$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.2251352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Cowboys49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4503557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Cowboys47c4,373$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.313372.7%24 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos52c4,360$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.31,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Broncos52c4,231$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.7714438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Broncos49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.875352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Broncos46c3,985$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.641947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cowboys51c3,925$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.7518435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos48c3,501$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.4824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cowboys50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Broncos52c2,216$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.6661148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Cowboys50c2,030$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0154957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys50c1,772$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8861,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Broncos51c1,750$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Cowboys52c1,731$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Cowboys52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7803638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Broncos1c1,461$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.394515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Cowboys51c1,075$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54417251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Broncos47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Cowboys53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53014148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Cowboys51c906.49$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Broncos51c821.65$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40341248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Broncos49c515$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.656752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Broncos47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Broncos48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2607456.8%42 W · 32 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cowboys9c405.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Cowboys51c403.46$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7659453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Cowboys49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1962128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Broncos52c360.16$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8825744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Cowboys50c310.79$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8531350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Cowboys53c303.85$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.047131%22 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Cowboys51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Broncos52c286.54$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.543847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Cowboys52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1307526.7%20 W · 55 L-12.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Broncos50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.157751.9%40 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Cowboys49c244.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Cowboys52c225$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…7942backed Broncos47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Broncos47c212$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3615746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Cowboys54c204.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Cowboys49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Broncos53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9423647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Broncos52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9610948.6%53 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Broncos50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Cowboys49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9813347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Cowboys53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Broncos41c167.88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2732043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Cowboys50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Broncos51c145.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.844856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Cowboys52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512755.1%70 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Broncos49c135.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.115764.9%37 W · 20 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Cowboys53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606254.8%34 W · 28 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…fa4ebacked Cowboys49c106$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.943043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Broncos52c105.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.773366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72ea…ab9dbacked Broncos49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.044346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc286…d936backed Broncos52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad5c…ac13backed Cowboys52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Broncos52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.158956.2%50 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x861d…c6bfbacked Broncos52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb8…76b4backed Cowboys49c91.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Cowboys49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d15…6914backed Cowboys51c77.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc91…ab50backed Broncos49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.022454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Cowboys49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.515352.3%80 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3056852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Broncos52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2424243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Cowboys53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256165.6%40 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Cowboys49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Broncos64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.448847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Cowboys52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0f…a394backed Broncos52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e3…6548backed Cowboys53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf3…379bbacked Cowboys53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ec4…e67abacked Broncos53c37.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac7…597ebacked Broncos59c36.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.161435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos51c36.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0377052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d08…7b68backed Cowboys52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Broncos67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.613165.6%86 W · 45 L+17.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Broncos52c19.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4218350.3%92 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.