TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Bucks, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,672,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,699,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,672,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Raptors57c408,515$232,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175,661.3815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bucks44c360,000$157,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157,60020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Raptors57c293,991$168,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,721.2447848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3987…259ebacked Raptors55c284,968$156,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,235.78022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bucks43c200,399$86,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,972.692,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bucks41c180,604$74,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,277.5636148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Bucks12c125,046$15,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,367.352330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Bucks42c120,938$50,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,991.097739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks43c95,338$41,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,029.0985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Bucks45c80,563$36,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,290.787255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…3ce4backed Bucks0c66,667$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Bucks0c58,815$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8819249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors56c40,584$22,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,856.961,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors55c35,275$19,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,797.431,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bucks1c34,862$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.3242845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Bucks46c32,002$14,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,690.47149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Raptors60c32,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,799.993748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Raptors55c31,257$17,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,128.6611558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Bucks45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Raptors62c30,000$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,399.9766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Raptors54c28,775$15,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,236.514856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raptors64c27,121$17,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,731.1847144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Bucks38c25,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5005350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks1c23,817$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.461,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Raptors57c23,600$13,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1482941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Raptors54c23,491$12,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,806.038843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e87…012ebacked Bucks43c22,492$9,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,671.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x531c…eb0dbacked Bucks3c20,863$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.117843.6%34 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Raptors62c20,500$12,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,804.9722752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Raptors62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,60038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Raptors54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.9824650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Bucks38c19,988$7,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,595.38939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Raptors68c17,877$12,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,778.4226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Raptors55c16,645$9,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,490.221656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Raptors62c16,260$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,260.0134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bucks45c16,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.9917354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed Bucks40c15,966$6,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,386.264040%16 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Bucks43c15,581$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7009445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Raptors58c15,500$8,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5106155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bucks0c14,961$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Bucks43c13,953$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0002937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Raptors61c12,787$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,986.9211741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Raptors61c12,651$7,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,933.736352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks27c12,507$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.661,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Raptors58c12,500$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2509042.2%38 W · 52 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Bucks38c12,345$4,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,691.17748.1%37 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks41c12,331$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.81,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Raptors59c12,290$7,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.3720352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked Raptors55c12,200$6,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,489.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Raptors58c12,166$7,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,133.2712160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Bucks2c12,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Raptors59c11,446$6,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,638.3147751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Raptors60c10,669$6,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,216.5448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e78…4d28backed Bucks11c9,367$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+74.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Bucks1c9,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.24573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Bucks32c9,000$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.3137930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Raptors58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.693455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors60c7,727$4,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.662,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Raptors57c7,118$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.777051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Raptors60c7,082$4,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.4644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked Bucks45c7,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1503844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks41c6,977$2,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…a53abacked Raptors58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6d22backed Bucks43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Raptors54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.9712657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Raptors57c5,750$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4456659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Raptors52c5,539$2,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.6340648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks45c5,515$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.572,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raptors59c5,509$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.2269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Raptors55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.5516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks29c5,314$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.521,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Raptors62c5,083$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.4280146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Raptors55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Bucks42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10040133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Raptors62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.9938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…32a1backed Bucks39c5,000$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.9910041%41 W · 59 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors57c5,000$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.1235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bucks42c4,845$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed Bucks45c4,714$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,137.814645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc172…47cbbacked Bucks46c4,652$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1403933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks0c4,424$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.828820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bucks44c4,262$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.0847448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Raptors60c4,226$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.39344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc35a…e5d8backed Bucks44c4,094$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.246440.6%26 W · 38 L-9.1wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors72c4,052$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raptors59c4,040$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.812,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Bucks23c4,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90011939.5%47 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Raptors57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7206636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bucks1c3,818$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.527211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Raptors58c3,760$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.864651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Raptors62c3,600$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36845348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors60c3,474$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.5295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Bucks38c3,300$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.9824330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors58c3,232$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.263,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Raptors67c3,198$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.811,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors60c3,188$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.592,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Raptors62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1408555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Bucks0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df6…4808backed Bucks15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.