TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cb6…3009backed Bucks50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors44c13,350$5,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4761,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors49c9,941$4,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,069.812,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raptors48c2,816$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.462,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bucks58c2,697$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.3517354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e5…78e4backed Bucks56c2,650$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks51c2,058$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.721,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Raptors47c2,013$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.8447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf52…bb79backed Raptors44c1,800$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0082100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+87.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors42c1,605$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors47c1,388$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7309,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks50c927.45$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.733,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bucks50c908.94$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.472,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabc6…cb90backed Raptors44c849.99$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks56c767.53$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.952,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1973…9fb5backed Bucks56c738.84$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Raptors42c700.19$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.1133743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff03…f97ebacked Bucks52c650$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9975…e7e6backed Bucks57c644.95$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.621010%1 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.44per pick54cpaid-81.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6544…4b74backed Bucks55c596.73$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.48650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb22…ce57backed Raptors44c596.41$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.413450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Raptors46c499.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9942845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…b8a8backed Bucks52c423.75$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.352142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Bucks57c421.05$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raptors48c410$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Bucks51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Bucks55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks52c347.21$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18024533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Bucks43c268.97$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6638151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Raptors47c241.27$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7871052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bucks38c217.3$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4631947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Bucks52c216$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6530053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks57c213.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.871,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors48c201.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.672,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks43c194.48$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.633,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors44c186$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.166,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Bucks57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008659.3%51 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed Bucks50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df0…8f4ebacked Bucks20c148.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Raptors50c136$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks51c107.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Raptors48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528540%34 W · 51 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Bucks50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014139%55 W · 86 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Bucks50c99.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036854.1%199 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c28…78c8backed Bucks59c98.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Raptors50c93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.538253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Raptors49c86.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8941848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b1…cd77backed Bucks59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Bucks52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Bucks56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.233950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors49c65.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4480148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73c…3b19backed Raptors42c59.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.711346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Bucks52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors48c54.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.173,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Bucks52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Bucks58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Raptors47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.219756.3%111 W · 86 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed Bucks50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011645.7%53 W · 63 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Raptors51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2211251.8%58 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Bucks51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010253.9%55 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Bucks52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Bucks52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fe…e803backed Bucks60c38.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6de…3db6backed Raptors50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Bucks57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7f2a…845bbacked Bucks50c34.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.488557.6%49 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Bucks59c33.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6913456.7%76 W · 58 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Bucks52c32.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Bucks56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87862.8%49 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Bucks52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Bucks52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519951.8%103 W · 96 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2337…3a2cbacked Bucks52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+50.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Bucks52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Raptors49c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.772,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe834…6407backed Bucks51c24.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Bucks51c22.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5627359%161 W · 112 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Bucks50c21.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.557052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc609…f29abacked Bucks50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105341.5%22 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d6…851dbacked Bucks51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.