NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a02e2b69294990c0fc4a2906d957561ff540c3791ef9098dcb3ff77814cb6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Over | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,199.97 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 9,893$4,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970.4 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 7,496$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,826.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 7,415$3,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 50c | 6,826$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.77 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 3,199$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.87 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 49c | 2,403$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.14 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 2,307$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…1f92backed Over | 51c | 735$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 51c | 708.14$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.15 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 616$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Over | 51c | 555$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…b852backed Under | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 49c | 394.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 53c | 379.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…cd61backed Under | 51c | 182.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 148.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 49c | 144.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b9d4backed Under | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…a94fbacked Under | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Under | 48c | 66.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…8372backed Under | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…74a6backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…d6d8backed Under | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…a9ccbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…606cbacked Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…f272backed Under | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…860cbacked Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…0e07backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 30.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…a09fbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…7283backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…bbc8backed Under | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…619abacked Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…f281backed Under | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…704bbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…a60fbacked Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…6020backed Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5this page
- Bucks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.