NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf103047b2b7046ae46808459950e9f54a2f15919d0fd65d16e14bf5deaa08c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Raptors | 52c | 37,882$19,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,070.59 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks | 48c | 23,836$11,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,441.72 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 47c | 10,622$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,995.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 46c | 2,023$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bucks | 49c | 1,046$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.81 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 58c | 888$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Raptors | 51c | 696.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.97 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bucks | 49c | 651.48$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.23 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 48c | 542.37$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bucks | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 47c | 423$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bucks | 52c | 400.31$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 48c | 388$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Raptors | 53c | 320.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors | 55c | 261$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Raptors | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Raptors | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked Bucks | 44c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Bucks | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)this page
- Bucks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.