NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21ad9756e935230e4849a9b81a88fbec013971a933db5cd21bc80eb2a8421b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors | 47c | 16,920$7,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,967.6 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Raptors | 48c | 9,256$4,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,814.4 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks | 53c | 9,222$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.12 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 53c | 6,910$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.1 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks | 52c | 5,550$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.35 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 53c | 3,131$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bucks | 52c | 2,418$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.21 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.13 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Bucks | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 43c | 1,158$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.23 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Bucks | 57c | 1,158$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.23 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Raptors | 53c | 880$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 49c | 749.56$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 77c | 749$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 53c | 664.57$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Raptors | 49c | 635$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.28 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bucks | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 46c | 283.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Raptors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…8273backed Bucks | 48c | 183$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…5c57backed Raptors | 54c | 174$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…b79cbacked Bucks | 46c | 168$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…0fc9backed Raptors | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Raptors | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4380…f900backed Bucks | 47c | 108.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Raptors | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bucks | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Bucks | 48c | 89.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…9e28backed Bucks | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Raptors | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…cad6backed Bucks | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)this page
- Bucks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.