Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Lulu Sun vs Yafan Wang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46159364776e6d56efcda5d4cbf940f40b236296418be32ed15fdca0826e2ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunof Sun, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wang | 4c | 1,800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Sun | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Sun | 65c | 1,246$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.08 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Wang | 36c | 1,215$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.18 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Sun | 66c | 1,153$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.11 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Wang | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wang | 28c | 522.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Wang | 16c | 517.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wang | 26c | 443.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Wang | 32c | 410$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sun | 65c | 305.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Wang | 36c | 249.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wang | 14c | 242$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wang | 12c | 222.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Wang | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wang | 34c | 198$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wang | 37c | 167.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Sun | 62c | 160.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Sun | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Sun | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sun | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Sun | 65c | 138.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sun | 64c | 107.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Sun | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Wang | 37c | 99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…56cabacked Wang | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Sun | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sun | 63c | 60.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wang | 34c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sun | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Wang | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Sun | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Sun | 76c | 30.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Wang | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wang | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…6044backed Sun | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sun | 62c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.