TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,573,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,591,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,573,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f09…4632backed Nuggets75c185,000$139,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,665.3620253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Pacers25c147,731$36,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,210.1515443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers25c109,487$27,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,549.9587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets76c105,764$80,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,448.122,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets76c76,535$58,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,285.582,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Pacers24c64,012$15,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,200.5927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Pacers24c50,540$12,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,235.0336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Nuggets75c40,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Pacers25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers24c38,652$9,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,289.464,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pacers25c30,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,40035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pacers1c29,075$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Nuggets75c24,440$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.0222458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pacers25c24,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nuggets76c23,493$17,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.221,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers23c22,171$5,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,207.375,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Pacers17c16,666$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763.5335651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers24c16,325$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,936.262,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee83…3848backed Pacers25c16,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pacers0c15,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Nuggets75c15,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,75038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers0c14,409$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.78820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers25c14,153$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Pacers23c13,364$3,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.381,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Nuggets75c13,355$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.6234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers24c12,655$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers1c12,402$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.081,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers24c12,053$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.772,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers25c11,949$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.5269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7440…24fdbacked Pacers25c11,370$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,842.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607b…2592backed Nuggets75c11,146$8,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,739.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91cc…18c3backed Nuggets75c10,700$8,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6754100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+97.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed Pacers24c10,289$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.341822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pacers18c10,229$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.851,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Pacers25c10,175$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.8319351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Pacers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pacers25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Nuggets75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Nuggets76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Nuggets76c9,210$7,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.5278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pacers25c9,106$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.4489050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Pacers25c9,000$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21048845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pacers24c8,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6764…6383backed Nuggets75c8,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers25c7,981$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.664,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pacers24c7,652$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.3947028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Nuggets76c7,500$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pacers24c7,400$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8112,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Pacers1c7,188$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.834573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Pacers25c6,867$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.759851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Nuggets76c6,770$5,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.3236943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…a198backed Nuggets75c6,666$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Pacers24c6,636$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.9826038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pacers25c6,483$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.0155346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Pacers23c5,962$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.8848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pacers2c5,863$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers25c5,497$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.573,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pacers25c5,430$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.5644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Nuggets75c5,295$3,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.6914639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pacers17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Pacers2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038845.9%178 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcddd…166cbacked Nuggets75c4,891$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.636953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Pacers6c4,534$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Nuggets75c4,303$3,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.8211452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd35…66c2backed Pacers1c4,240$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518317.5%32 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pacers25c4,099$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.1192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pacers0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Pacers26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Nuggets75c3,900$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9759260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Pacers25c3,717$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.3411354%61 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0be…651fbacked Pacers0c3,457$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…128ebacked Nuggets75c3,454$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Nuggets75c3,333$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.332642.3%11 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf42d…808dbacked Pacers25c3,200$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Nuggets76c3,069$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.6643051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pacers1c3,010$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.041,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Nuggets75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Nuggets76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72015461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers22c2,944$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.6866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b6…5a9ebacked Pacers25c2,915$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Nuggets76c2,915$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Pacers26c2,913$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.279944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…ce0abacked Pacers24c2,802$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pacers25c2,775$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.7547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Pacers24c2,725$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4922637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…a6e1backed Nuggets75c2,667$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.675667.9%38 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0d…e220backed Nuggets75c2,667$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Nuggets76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.5847856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Pacers25c2,566$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.4973647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers25c2,561$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.153,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade4…46b5backed Nuggets75c2,533$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nuggets75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Pacers25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62544648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x946c…9afbbacked Pacers26c2,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…bc12backed Pacers26c2,491$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Nuggets77c2,460$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.834942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked Pacers21c2,397$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.372962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pacers25c2,305$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Pacers26c2,269$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9436351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nuggets76c2,222$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.2876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.