NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fba06a322c4c19a0f2c31106b23c67d5d672221b6b0e52ce39a2b01da029e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 8,856$4,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 49c | 8,775$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.75 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Under | 48c | 7,034$3,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.04 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,509$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 48c | 3,859$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.1 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.54 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 47c | 2,154$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.62 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…e2dcbacked Over | 52c | 1,937$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 1,893$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.79 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 53c | 1,513$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.64 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 1,172$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.2 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 887.43$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 846.08$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.47 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 52c | 471.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 447$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 350$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 242.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 189$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 45c | 184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 151$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef7…b64bbacked Under | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…8a2abacked Over | 50c | 80.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7549…0ccdbacked Under | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 76.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 58.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Under | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 47.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…35b6backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b613backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 40c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…ee09backed Under | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. PacersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.