TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Over51c8,856$4,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.252,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Under49c8,775$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.7520542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Under48c7,034$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,390.048333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c6,509$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Under48c3,859$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.118151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over52c3,333$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.8428850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over52c2,212$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.5417856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over47c2,154$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.6258347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7938…e2dcbacked Over52c1,937$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over54c1,893$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.792,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over53c1,513$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.6412555.2%69 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over48c1,172$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.21,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c887.43$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.294,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over51c846.08$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.473,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38436248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23076249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Under46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307741.6%32 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over52c471.5$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c447$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over54c350$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.51,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Over50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1258540%34 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over50c242.72$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.362,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under47c189$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8362541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under45c184$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.92,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over50c151$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.991,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7237750.4%190 W · 187 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over50c132$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4180148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4615247.4%72 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef7…b64bbacked Under51c82.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd5e3…8a2abacked Over50c80.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.19887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick54cpaid+67.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7549…0ccdbacked Under54c79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c76.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under53c62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8665855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under48c58.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.822,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.422,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd87b…946dbacked Under48c56.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274540%18 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under46c47.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bc…35b6backed Over48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc26c…b613backed Over48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over52c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8450047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under40c26.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5818554.1%100 W · 85 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c1…ee09backed Under50c21.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.