NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x566a88a2d413994c77b5fba2cb9ba4fd61fdde8b6a9ccd7a53dbdaeb31d8013f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,360 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Over | 50c | 6,070$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,262$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 4,029$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 46c | 3,252$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.17 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 3,065$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 50c | 2,784$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.16 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 35c | 2,495$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.12 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 49c | 2,129$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 2,100$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 54c | 2,070$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.57 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 1,601$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 37c | 1,013$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 51c | 784$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.16 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 501.75$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 477$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 212$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…457abacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Under | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 59.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Over | 49c | 47.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…a2dfbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…ba2ebacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. PacersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.