NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2b002a20b84fc01deba4ee902c82503d76ddb841387daecdd6dc600746d3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 50c | 56,502$28,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,167.8 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed 49ers | 51c | 45,343$22,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,344.63 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Giants | 49c | 42,548$20,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,818.43 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed 49ers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked 49ers | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked 49ers | 50c | 19,415$9,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,651.76 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Giants | 48c | 16,892$8,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,108.16 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed 49ers | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked 49ers | 49c | 5,608$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Giants | 50c | 5,504$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.09 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 49c | 4,725$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Giants | 51c | 3,351$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.18 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed 49ers | 48c | 3,207$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.48 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Giants | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 49c | 2,374$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.43 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Giants | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Giants | 51c | 1,994$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.95 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed 49ers | 51c | 862.75$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Giants | 51c | 785$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.35 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed 49ers | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 49ers | 49c | 539$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed 49ers | 50c | 440$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked 49ers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Giants | 49c | 369.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Giants | 50c | 351.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Giants | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Giants | 49c | 244$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…56cabacked 49ers | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked 49ers | 51c | 204$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed 49ers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed 49ers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed 49ers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 49ers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed 49ers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked 49ers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Giants | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed 49ers | 50c | 126$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked 49ers | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked 49ers | 51c | 102.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked 49ers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed 49ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed 49ers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked 49ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed 49ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…dc7fbacked 49ers | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed 49ers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed 49ers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Giants | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…2fbabacked 49ers | 50c | 91.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked 49ers | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed 49ers | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked 49ers | 50c | 57.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed 49ers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Giants | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed 49ers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked 49ers | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed 49ers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b7…1a2fbacked Giants | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Giants | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…d7efbacked 49ers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…ddf5backed 49ers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…ab50backed 49ers | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked 49ers | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Giants | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…9aa0backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1b…486dbacked 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed 49ers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.