NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Giants: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae8701374ab87f21ffee685ae0a1a52d5899696285df043eb7f94cd2e787d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 53c | 9,451$5,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009.16 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 5,144$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.45 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 4,220$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…fcb0backed Over | 49c | 3,008$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,170$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.33 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…e49fbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…8863backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…7c35backed Over | 49c | 1,983$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 49c | 1,714$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.14 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,507$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.9 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 31c | 1,180$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.68 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d563backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 442$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 55c | 269$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Under | 54c | 262.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 48c | 251.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 69c | 247.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 139.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 39c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Under | 52c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…eb57backed Under | 51c | 36.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 21.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…9806backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.