NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9de547d2c1ab94415262616b960074c4d591cbb0be07ba694560c76f0fdc35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers | 43c | 81,006$34,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,197.07 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 58c | 49,127$28,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,493.63 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Giants | 59c | 21,507$12,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,689.35 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed 49ers | 42c | 12,446$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,218.53 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Giants | 58c | 9,532$5,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,494.07 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Giants | 56c | 8,114$4,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,546.36 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers | 41c | 8,000$3,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Giants | 57c | 3,500$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked 49ers | 41c | 3,285$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.15 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 41c | 3,221$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.66 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 48c | 2,358$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.58 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giants | 56c | 1,828$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.48 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 57c | 1,712$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.82 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Giants | 58c | 1,600$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Giants | 57c | 1,250$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked 49ers | 42c | 1,050$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Giants | 57c | 465$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Giants | 56c | 459.06$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.91 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Giants | 56c | 416.84$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed 49ers | 42c | 407.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.47 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Giants | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Giants | 57c | 119.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 56c | 110.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed 49ers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Giants | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Giants | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed 49ers | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 49ers | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Giants | 56c | 54.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Giants | 58c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed 49ers | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed 49ers | 42c | 32.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants49ers won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 47.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Giants: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.