Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5789dc57a0c76e679b0250eb0e2e920c40d87db1580dfdc32f563cc5b74a2639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 28c | 40,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 28c | 8,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 3,528$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.41 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 28c | 3,524$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.64 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 71c | 3,500$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 953.65$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.02 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…9303backed Yes | 24c | 489.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 71c | 330.48$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 297.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 69c | 291$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 17c | 238.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 64c | 230.32$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 58c | 212.07$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed No | 72c | 199$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 15c | 186.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…cb8cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 29c | 101.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 29c | 71.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 38c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 78c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3396…759fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-09-25?No won
- Will Lyon win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.