Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc5bed37428ee97f1b643caf6bbc2c1da904858fe1e36ff859e80e5366c1ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 29c | 6,038$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.1 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 24c | 4,477$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.79 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 3,638$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 3,116$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 74c | 2,273$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.09 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 77c | 2,190$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…441ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,519$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…654abacked Yes | 66c | 763.62$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…500abacked Yes | 72c | 751.51$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 707$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b0…aa25backed Yes | 80c | 589.18$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…66a9backed Yes | 73c | 589.12$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 27c | 545$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 31c | 542$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…e0c4backed Yes | 27c | 514.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 28c | 405.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 27c | 373$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Yes | 25c | 319.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed No | 75c | 285$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Yes | 28c | 248.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 75c | 189.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 73c | 168.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 18c | 155.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 69c | 150.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…ab6cbacked Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…ba78backed Yes | 26c | 130.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 27c | 129.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 121.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Yes | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 26c | 114.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 27c | 96.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 89.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee1…25f8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 29c | 67.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 80c | 66.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…63fcbacked No | 75c | 62.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…3539backed Yes | 26c | 49.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 25c | 48.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c99…2c2abacked Yes | 26c | 44.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 74c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd5…268cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 80c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c80…f971backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-07?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.