Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3525468948c7dd557ef942ac71b815187f47355412c6d9f209d266cde168ff9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 13,275$9,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,715.95 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 10,609$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.46 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 1,183$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 28c | 623.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 368$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…f1f6backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 13c | 132.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 73.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 74c | 73.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.