TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb786…b18dbacked No23c22,590$5,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,203.5114846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes39c20,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,20011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No61c19,392$11,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,828.91947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No37c18,548$6,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,924.843,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No50c12,408$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,150.1819153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No10c9,988$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.755056%28 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No28c6,347$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.723234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No58c4,947$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.322,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes38c4,032$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.58637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes40c3,984$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.146451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Yes78c3,135$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f0…2c98backed Yes36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes36c1,795$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.197423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes40c1,729$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes61c1,465$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes73c1,349$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.5415064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No61c1,113$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.8914254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes37c1,008$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.8922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes37c1,002$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.1818840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No60c973.53$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.059552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No28c803.94$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0910347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No10c795.02$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.076543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No59c782.23$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2323745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…73b3backed Yes65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes35c720$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46815742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No63c634.92$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x056a…611fbacked Yes41c601.1$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.11233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked No60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No26c578$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.663330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes50c543.79$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes38c494.79$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.772360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes38c464$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.5734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes75c400$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc151…2501backed Yes39c382$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe505…fadbbacked No19c321.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8480…293ebacked No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb125…69ebbacked No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363420.6%7 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa52e…e2c4backed No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1619943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2933…2e06backed Yes68c242.69$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes78c238$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.539846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x989b…8864backed Yes73c226.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes40c221.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No60c221.44$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.862454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No59c218.24$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0624258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked Yes40c217.68$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.61650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Yes38c197.37$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.373655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes36c172.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a9…32a7backed Yes61c171.24$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes61c164.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.039951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.891580%12 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec89…3286backed Yes41c135.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.414030%12 W · 28 L-7.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5060…79c4backed Yes38c132$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.841741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689d…9b52backed Yes39c125.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+85.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…4f68backed Yes41c123.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x503b…aa93backed Yes63c122.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No60c110$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes41c97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.44650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes62c96.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.572450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes45c91.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.756459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes39c89.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.741258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed No50c87.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.564645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3311250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No60c78.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5125659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes36c77.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.783868.4%26 W · 12 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.923455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed No23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2af6…b030backed Yes40c66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.793070%21 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+50.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.792969%20 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.571650%8 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53450%17 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+113%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97b6…0acebacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+97.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes41c54.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.922650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4a…dbb0backed Yes40c53.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+102.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac5…28d4backed Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+80.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.632045%9 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+47.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad12…5325backed Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614e…7644backed Yes41c51.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29bf…08a1backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe43b…235fbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be3…bb12backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes35c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.253828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67e…c715backed Yes36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa43…22f3backed Yes40c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca31…fc23backed No64c31.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f7…3643backed Yes40c31.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf880…affdbacked Yes38c31.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No58c30.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.959053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes63c28.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.473467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ad…fa6cbacked Yes59c25.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.