Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519cf373767ba77512d4e6ca7c48103849582d28115963b8e37c45e5ca3108cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked No | 63c | 105,156$66,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,907.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 37c | 43,059$15,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,840.64 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 30,466$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Yes | 37c | 29,466$10,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,902.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 5c | 21,372$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 37c | 10,560$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.16 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 37c | 7,000$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 15c | 5,556$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.47 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,015$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 3,638$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,585$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 37c | 3,168$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 3,035$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.53 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,919$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 36c | 1,856$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.99 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 2c | 1,803$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.88 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 63c | 649.21$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 37c | 283$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed No | 65c | 231$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 34c | 228.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 227.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 35c | 198$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cf…f27dbacked Yes | 38c | 173.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 66c | 163.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…06a4backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 117.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 62c | 114.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444f…0d49backed No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…2c08backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…d82fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 64c | 39.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2933…2e06backed Yes | 41c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…d50ebacked No | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…7b65backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 67c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 66c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…ee7bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.