Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4837ab7939a75df5810e293a787fd67ef3b8124b27925b5edf9d7ae9d8e7cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Ajaxof Qarabağ Ağdam FK, AFC Ajax
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Ajax | 70c | 4,906$3,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.05 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 28c | 3,624$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AFC Ajax | 74c | 1,945$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.47 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 1,478$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 2c | 1,455$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 1,426$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 22c | 1,426$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…f319backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 1,115$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 776.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed AFC Ajax | 66c | 496.3$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…a8fcbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 483$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…2341backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 18c | 338.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed AFC Ajax | 72c | 292.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 34c | 285.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 264.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 252.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 240.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 234$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 206.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 201.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed AFC Ajax | 77c | 164$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…3762backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked AFC Ajax | 78c | 153.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 28c | 130.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed AFC Ajax | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…59a0backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 107.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9106backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 26c | 97.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 93.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…beecbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 25c | 79.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed AFC Ajax | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked AFC Ajax | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed AFC Ajax | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed AFC Ajax | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked AFC Ajax | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed AFC Ajax | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…75e7backed AFC Ajax | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…5bedbacked AFC Ajax | 62c | 22.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed AFC Ajax | 70c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AFC Ajax | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)this page
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.