Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b66cf8ef08b55d40cd2d3399a8c08e80fbea61bb689f972ef03d5be8697ee92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Newcastle United FC, Athletic Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 23,107$10,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,320.94 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Athletic Club | 54c | 22,175$11,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,952.65 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Athletic Club | 33c | 2,202$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.04 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Athletic Club | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Athletic Club | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Athletic Club | 53c | 699.98$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Athletic Club | 54c | 443.7$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Newcastle United FC | 48c | 249.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Newcastle United FC | 48c | 246$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…108fbacked Newcastle United FC | 47c | 223.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…9363backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…6011backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 208.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 197.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Athletic Club | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 168.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Newcastle United FC | 45c | 158.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…ba90backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 142.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Newcastle United FC | 47c | 122.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Athletic Club | 55c | 103.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Athletic Club | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Newcastle United FC | 45c | 98.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Newcastle United FC | 48c | 88.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Newcastle United FC | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Athletic Club | 53c | 65.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Newcastle United FC | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Newcastle United FC | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Athletic Club | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Athletic Club | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Newcastle United FC | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Athletic Club | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Newcastle United FC | 45c | 35.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…a812backed Newcastle United FC | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Athletic Club | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Athletic Club | 56c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Athletic Club | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Athletic Club | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.