Champions League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77fc3b6c5efff6d1f0fd4c448ec3376b9dc27f41b5f6f7e6c47acab7a35a60e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 54c | 6,044$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.92 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 3,986$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.94 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 3,194$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.28 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 44c | 900$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 52c | 530$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 291.48$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.69 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 253.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 55c | 223.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 56c | 133.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 55c | 94.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…50f0backed Over | 55c | 44.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…1bdfbacked Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.