Serie A · resolved market
Verona vs. Inter: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c78b271716d6a2614ebeb43fde54ba59094d76ebc62740dd1b3933ec1749239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,802$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.8 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 50c | 4,816$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 1,482$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.32 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,450$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.31 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 55c | 1,066$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.59 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 55c | 408.01$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 58c | 247.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 46c | 203.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 64c | 169$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Under | 72c | 159.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…606fbacked Under | 32c | 147.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f814backed Over | 60c | 133.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 99.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 46c | 97.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 54c | 80.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Under | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…bf86backed Over | 40c | 41.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8151backed Over | 39c | 38.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…84b7backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Over | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 56c | 18.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Verona vs. Inter: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Inter (-1.5)Verona won
- Verona vs. Inter: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.