La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1487c2cdfc328d6440a166e3a3ec75b928ffe4b2e53f9266c31c4d0f84030d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 42c | 46,000$19,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,459.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 24,173$14,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,157.76 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 57c | 9,878$5,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.68 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 58c | 6,957$4,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.94 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 41c | 345.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Over | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 58c | 230.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 56c | 126.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Under | 44c | 112.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 56c | 107.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…7c30backed Over | 55c | 81.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Over | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 31.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 67c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal (-1.5)Villarreal won
- Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.