Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47237cdb623b2d5851a20ecf9ec65aa92d4e5ac33033af8bdf3083ef9347697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 24c | 2,622$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.18 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 2,127$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.63 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 1,597$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.11 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 74c | 593.71$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 406.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 75c | 263$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 80c | 217.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 23c | 198.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 72c | 87.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cc…8d59backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Paris FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.