Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500338f5f95306e3043849d59fbcfadb0612c04ce9906e0bb878748eef0bcf2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked No | 50c | 40,437$20,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,218.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 53c | 3,490$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.3 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,290$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 46c | 2,154$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 62c | 1,488$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 46c | 1,217$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.54 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 50c | 1,023$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.54 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed Yes | 46c | 1,005$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 428.2$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2692backed Yes | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 30c | 227.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.41 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…1bd7backed Yes | 42c | 173.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 58c | 173.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 49c | 160$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 44c | 103.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 45c | 96.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 49c | 87.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…dde1backed Yes | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 31c | 81.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 47c | 53.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 52c | 31.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…3d62backed Yes | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…93f4backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8447…5a0ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…c7f6backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…c6b6backed Yes | 79c | 20.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. Paris FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.