Fifa International · resolved market
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f64043b6d86c1f9c2a8f8a2c0e8a2273f07a47a8b130c6ae3330fc352b7721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 27c | 10,320$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.4 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 73c | 7,403$5,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.62 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 38c | 5,126$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.98 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 4,126$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.11 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 21c | 2,550$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,245$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.2 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 2,145$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.94 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 30c | 949.35$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.61 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 823.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 24c | 658$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 19c | 599.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…40fabacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 18c | 452.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 79c | 349.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 330.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 12c | 266.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 19c | 208.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 140.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…7a51backed No | 80c | 128.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 19c | 118.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 34c | 117.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350d…b898backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +200%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…bebebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…b289backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 17.7%22 W · 102 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 20c | 51.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3444backed No | 80c | 28.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…c2c7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wales win on 2025-10-13?this page
- Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13?Yes won
- Will Wales vs. Belgium end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.