Fifa International · resolved market
Will Wales vs. Belgium end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473ed4cadcc8d721aad5cc5cba3aa12239e7b5ad034bf0ce03a7c9b8fa9ab543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 74c | 2,149$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.76 | 747 | 52.2%390 W · 357 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 25c | 1,548$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 20c | 1,285$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed Yes | 26c | 822.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 800$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e349backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 76c | 635.57$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 30c | 395.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 376.73$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked Yes | 19c | 376$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 26c | 231.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 206.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 109.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 103.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…1562backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…c24ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 131 | 25.2%33 W · 98 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d99…faa2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 76c | 38.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wales vs. Belgium end in a draw?this page
- Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13?Yes won
- Will Wales win on 2025-10-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.