Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598205f29c76d92a34573fb136b9706c68415cfe95fca06a9febf053142e2938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayern Münchenof Bayern München, Bayer Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bayer Leverkusen | 64c | 5,312$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.01 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Bayern München | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Bayern München | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer Leverkusen | 62c | 1,886$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bayern München | 38c | 1,250$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bayern München | 42c | 528.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bayer Leverkusen | 58c | 370.55$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.12 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Bayern München | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Bayern München | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Bayern München | 30c | 272.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Bayern München | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Bayern München | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bayer Leverkusen | 59c | 76.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…bb87backed Bayer Leverkusen | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Bayern München | 36c | 52.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Bayer Leverkusen | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bayer Leverkusen | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bayer Leverkusen | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Bayer Leverkusen | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Bayer Leverkusen | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Bayer Leverkusen | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.