Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8770e4a6a6d4ac6d91cd3292968af50c73d1ba294e6df0944fb78b881ffd8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 22,412$9,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,836.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 58c | 10,615$6,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,129.16 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 9,586$4,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,787.9 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 57c | 8,731$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.8 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Over | 50c | 3,207$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 59c | 2,026$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 988.42$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.33 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 47c | 973.77$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…cf6abacked Under | 50c | 446.04$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 395.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.55 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…4d2dbacked Under | 54c | 250.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Over | 50c | 246.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 59c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 75c | 169$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 41c | 128.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 44c | 116$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 59c | 86.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…53c9backed Over | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 48c | 69.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 59c | 67.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Under | 54c | 61.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…4d9abacked Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…3b9ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 43c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 57c | 35.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under | 54c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d26…10d3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.