Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61cd90af2358cf8f824e0700cd7f33cad63b84203bde14dfd3082f6005ca878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5adf…d32abacked Under | 40c | 29,946$11,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,926.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 60c | 25,652$15,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,224.46 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 37c | 2,852$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.28 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 60c | 1,750$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 60c | 1,735$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.44 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…0c0bbacked Over | 63c | 922.73$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 64c | 786.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Over | 53c | 641.51$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.51 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 63c | 556.21$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 546$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 55c | 539.68$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Over | 63c | 263.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 57c | 217.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 36c | 171.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…3a31backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 36c | 152.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Under | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 136 | 56.6%77 W · 59 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 65c | 84.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +13.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 77c | 75.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 35c | 71.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…c765backed Under | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…2ea6backed Over | 65c | 38.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 63c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…da51backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…4329backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…0d0dbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…142abacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 64c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x808b…48c8backed Over | 64c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5this page
- Manchester United vs. Brighton: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Manchester United (-0.5)Manchester United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.